NAFTA is a treaty ratified by the Senate and as such, Trump can't easily implment the tariff as that undoes the treaty. Trump can count on the importers challenging the move in court. He'll probably use it as a gauge to see if the Senate will do anything to check his power - because they could, but I suspect the Senate will be the lackeys Trump is expecting them to be.
Mexico supplies well over half of all produce consumed in the US, and produce prices have so far been less impacted by inflation/price gouging/however you prefer to think about it.
If this winds up going through, people all over the country are going to see the sticker shock at the store very quickly.
We'll be able to measure how much support for something like that he can get. Also, we can easily see Canada and Mexico retaliating against American goods with similar tariffs.
In any case, this is meant to stir up his supporters. If the Legislative blocks him, he still wins by becoming the victim of a "legislative power grab".
It'd be easier to play the victim if it weren't his own party controlling the legislature. That's where the Republicans are in a bit of a pickle - if their policies cause pain to the electorate then it's going to be really hard to pin it on the Democrats. Not impossible, but hard.
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